Banco de Credito del Peru (BCP) forecasted yesterday that Peru’s GDP will grow between 4 and 4.5 percent in 2015. A Bloomberg survey of economists indicates growth of 4.3 percent, both lower than the Economy and Finance Ministry’s forecast of 4.8 percent.
BCP’s chief of economic studies, Carlos Prieto, said the exact rate would depend on the scale of the rebound in mining, fishing and agriculture industries as well as the level of public infrastructure investment.
Both BCP and the Bloomberg survey suggested slower economic growth in the first quarter of 2015, which would pick up during the rest of the year. Bloomberg forecasted inflation between 2.4 and 2.7 percent, within Peru’s target range of 1 and 3 percent, and no change in interest rates for the first three quarters.
The nuevo sol closed at S/. 3.086 against the dollar after the central bank intervened with currency swaps totaling $50 million. The dollar has strengthened 3.5% against the nuevo sol in 2015.
Julio Velarde, president of Peru’s Central Reserve Bank (BCR) and The Banker’s 2015 Central Banker of the Year, stated on Thursday that volatility in currency markets would continue in the foreseeable future due to swings in commodity prices and global treasury bond yields.
Sources:
BCP prevé que economía peruana crecerá entre 4% y 4.5% este año (Andina)
Bloomberg: Economía peruana solo crecería hasta 4,3% el 2015 (El Comercio)
BCR: Los ciclos económicos no han terminado y la volatilidad seguirá en el mercado (Gestion)
Dólar sube S/. 3.086 en una sesión donde el BCR vendió US$ 50 millones (La Republica)
Tipo de cambio cerró estable tras colocación de swaps del BCR (El Comercio)